| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.45 | 3.42 | 0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 3.96 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.41 | 4.41 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.56 | 3.63 | -0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.75 | 3.80 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.10 | 4.13 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 27 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally moved modestly higher across the curve, although ultra-long yields finished steady. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.40%, 94bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a solid chance of another one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across a steeper curve. Data releases included August Personal Income and Outlays and August Wholesale inventories.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.525% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.97%, 186bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
