| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.52 | 3.54 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.92 | 3.97 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.33 | 4.38 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.60 | 3.67 | -0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.64 | 3.70 | -0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 3.97 | 4.00 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 10 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell across a steeper curve. Domestic economic reports on the day included the September reading of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index and NAB’s August business survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.42%, 92bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a good chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across a steeper curve. The only data release of note on the day was the August NFIB Small Business Optimism report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.20% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.93%, 240bps less than the current rate.
