| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.56 | 3.59 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.96 | 4.01 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.41 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.76 | 3.87 | -0.11 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.76 | 3.83 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.06 | 4.13 | -0.07 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 4 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately across the curve, lagging the downward movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. Domestic economic reports for the day were limited to June quarter GDP figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.48%, 86bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and some chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields again fell noticeably across a now-flattened curve. Data releases included the July JOLTS, July factory orders and the September Fed Beige Book
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.18% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 3.13%, 220bps less than the current rate.
