| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.59 | 3.60 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.01 | 4.02 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.41 | 4.42 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.87 | 3.92 | -0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.83 | 3.91 | -0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.13 | 4.20 | -0.07 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 3 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields slipped a touch across the curve. Domestic economic reports included June quarter net exports and the June quarter current account balance.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a slim chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.53%, 81bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and some chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell noticeably across a slightly flatter curve. Data releases included July construction spending and the August ISM manufacturing PMIs.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.19% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 3.295%, 203bps less than the current rate.
