| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.54 | 3.53 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.96 | 3.94 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.34 | 4.33 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.89 | 3.91 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.86 | 3.84 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.15 | 4.13 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 29 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly across the curve, largely in line with the movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night. Domestic economic reports of note were limited to June quarter capex figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a slim chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.535%, 81bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and some chance of a fourth one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields declined modestly while longer-term yields increased modestly. Data releases included July pending home sales, July wholesale inventories, July trade balance figures and weekly initial jobless claim numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.195% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.41%, 192bps less than the current rate.
