| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.31 | 3.64 | -0.33 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.87 | 4.06 | -0.19 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.46 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.92 | 3.88 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.79 | 3.79 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.08 | 4.11 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 6 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally bounced from yesterday’s plunge, although ultra-long yields declined moderately. Domestic data releases included the July update of the ANZ-Indeed Job Ads index, the RBA August Statement on Monetary Policy and the RBA Board monetary policy decision.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.615%, 73bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts and a high chance of a third one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose moderately at the short end while ultra-long yields increased more noticeably. Data releases were limited to June trade balance figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.12% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.45%, 188bps less than the current rate.
