| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.94 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.29 | 4.28 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.63 | 4.64 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.36 | 4.40 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.14 | 4.18 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.43 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 30 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally increased slightly with the exception of ultra-long yields which slipped a little. Domestic data releases were limited to June dwelling approval numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures implied an average cash rate of 4.39% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 4.08%, 26bps below the current cash rate, pricing in one 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately across the curve. Data releases included June JOLTS figures and July Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 4.00%, 133bps less than the current rate.
