| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.94 | 3.95 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.28 | 4.32 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.64 | 4.67 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.39 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.18 | 4.19 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.43 | 4.45 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 29 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell, with falls at the long end outpacing those at the short end. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures implied an average cash rate of 4.385% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 4.065%, 28bps below the current cash rate, pricing in one 25bp cut (in net terms) with a modest chance of another cut between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields crept higher at the short end while longer-term yields fell modestly. Data releases were limited to the July update of the Dallas Fed activity index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 3.97%, 136bps less than the current rate.
