| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.32 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.67 | 4.69 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.39 | 4.43 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.19 | 4.24 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.45 | 4.48 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 26 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields remained unchanged with the exception of ultra-long yields which declined modestly, unlike the movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST) where yields fell moderately across the curve. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures implied an average cash rate of 4.385% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 4.055%, 29bps below the current cash rate, pricing in one 25bp cut (in net terms) with a modest chance of another cut between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields again fell moderately across the curve. Data releases were limited to June quarter personal consumption expenditure (PCE) figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 3.955%, 138bps less than the current rate.
