| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 4.01 | -0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.34 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.69 | 4.68 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.43 | 4.47 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.24 | 4.29 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.48 | 4.54 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 25 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell with the exception of ultra-long yields which rose a touch, unlike the movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST) where longer-term yields increased moderately. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures implied an average cash rate of 4.38% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 4.045%, 30bps below the current cash rate, pricing in one 25bp cut (in net terms) with a modest chance of another cut between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately across the curve. Data releases included June quarter GDP figures, June durable goods orders, the July Kansas City Fed activity index update and weekly initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 3.985%, 135bps less than the current rate.
