| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.01 | 4.02 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.34 | 4.36 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.68 | 4.70 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.47 | 4.49 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.29 | 4.25 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.54 | 4.48 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 24 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields declined by modest amounts across the curve, unlike the movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST) where longer-term yields either remained steady or increased a touch. There were no data releases of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.385% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures imply 4.11%, 23bps below the current cash rate, or a high probability of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next July.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields fell modestly while longer-term yields rose moderately. Data releases included the June wholesale inventories, June new home sales and S&P Global PMIs.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 3.98%, 135bps less than the current rate.
