| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.02 | 3.98 | 0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.36 | 4.32 | 0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.66 | 0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.49 | 4.52 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.48 | 4.47 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 23 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose by moderate amounts across the curve, outpacing the rises of US Treasury yields on Monday night (AEST). There were no data releases of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.385% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures imply 4.115%, 23bps below the current cash rate, or a high probability of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next July.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields fell moderately while longer-term yields either remained steady or increased a touch. Data releases included the June Richmond Fed Activity Index and June existing home sales.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a tiny chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 4.03%, 130bps less than the current rate.
