| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.93 | 3.93 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.26 | 4.26 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.60 | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.42 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.16 | 4.16 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.38 | 4.37 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 17 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields finished unchanged, in contrast with falls of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST). Data releases were limited to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute June Leading Index.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.37% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures imply 4.065%, 27bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in one 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally increased by modest amounts along the curve. Data releases included June industrial production, June housing starts, June building permits and the Fed’s July Beige Book.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a tiny chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, July 2025 contracts implied 3.96%, 137bps less than the current rate.
