| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.05 | 4.14 | -0.09 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.42 | -0.10 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.61 | 4.70 | -0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.76 | 4.71 | 0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.29 | 0.11 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.56 | 4.43 | 0.13 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 28 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields reversed Thursday’s rises, moving noticeably lower and outpacing the falls of US yields on Thursday night. Economic reports were limited to May private sector credit figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.40% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.28%, 5bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a modest probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose by increasing amounts along the curve. Economic data included May personal consumption expenditure (PCE) figures, the Chicago Fed’s June PMI and the final estimate of the UoM’s June consumer sentiment index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.305% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.39%, 94bps less than the current rate.
