| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.14 | 4.07 | 0.07 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.42 | 4.32 | 0.10 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.62 | 0.08 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.71 | 4.79 | -0.08 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.29 | 4.33 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.43 | 4.46 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 27 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved significantly higher across the curve following similar increases of US yields on Wednesday night. Economic data included June Melbourne Institute inflation expectations and June quarter job vacancy numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.42% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.365%, 5bps above the current cash rate, thus pricing in a modest probability of a 25bp rise between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell back, especially at the short end of the curve. Economic data included May durable goods orders, May wholesale inventories, May pending home sales and weekly initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.30% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.38%, 95bps less than the current rate.
