| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.07 | 3.89 | 0.18 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.21 | 0.11 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.62 | 4.53 | 0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.79 | 4.74 | 0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.33 | 4.25 | 0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.46 | 4.37 | 0.09 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 26 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields jumped, especially at the short end of the curve, in contrast with the modest increases of US yields on Tuesday night. Economic data included May’s monthly CPI figures (the catalyst for the rises) and the May Westpac-MI Leading Index.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.405% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.275%, 5bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a modest probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose noticeably along the curve. Economic data was limited to May new home sales figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.305% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.415%, 92bps less than the current rate.
