| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.89 | 3.90 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.21 | 4.22 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.53 | 4.55 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.74 | 4.73 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.25 | 4.23 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.38 | 4.37 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 25 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields declined modestly along the curve, generally lagging the falls of US yields on Monday night. Economic data included results from the June Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment survey and the June quarter ACCI-Westpac Business survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.35% for the month, thus pricing a small probability of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. However, June 2025 futures imply 4.075%, 25bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a 100% probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose modestly along the curve. Data included The Conference Board’s June consumer confidence survey and a couple of regional Fed June business activity indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.30% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.355%, 98bps less than the current rate.
