| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.90 | 3.88 | 0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.22 | 4.22 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.55 | 4.54 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.73 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.23 | 4.26 | -0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.37 | 4.40 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 24 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields either rose modestly or remained steady, slightly differently from the near-unchanged yields of US yields on Friday night. There were no local economic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.355% for the month, thus pricing a small probability of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. However, June 2025 futures imply 4.09%, 23bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a high probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Shorter-term US Treasury bond yields finished steady while long-term yields fell moderately. The only data of note for the day was a regional Fed June business activity index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.305% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.32%, 101bps less than the current rate.
