| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.88 | 3.88 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.22 | 4.21 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.54 | 4.52 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.26 | 4.26 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 21 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly along the curve, lagging the upward movements of US yields on Thursday night. There were no local economic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.35% for the month, thus pricing a small probability of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. However, June 2025 futures imply 4.075%, almost 25bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a near-100% probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields barely moved. Data releases included the Conference Board May Leading Index, May existing home sales and S&P Global June PMIs.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.305% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.335%, 100bps less than the current rate.
