| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.81 | 3.76 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.16 | 4.11 | 0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.48 | 4.44 | 0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.72 | 4.77 | -0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.22 | 4.28 | -0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.36 | 4.41 | -0.05 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 18 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose moderately across the curve, almost in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Monday night. There were no economic data releases, although the RBA Board did announce no change to its cash rate target.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.34% for the month, thus pricing a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.03%, 29bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in one 25bp cut and some chance of another one between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately across the curve. May retail sales, May industrial production and April business inventory figures were released.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.30% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.315%, 102bps less than the current rate.
