| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.76 | 3.78 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.11 | 4.12 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.44 | 4.51 | -0.07 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.77 | 4.71 | 0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.22 | 0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.41 | 4.35 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 17 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell modestly with the exception of ultra-long yields which caught up from Friday’s lag. The only economic data of note published on the day was the ANZ-Indeed May Job Ads report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends today. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 3.96%, 36bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in one 25bp cut and a material chance of another one between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose uniformly across the curve. Economic reports were limited, with only the June Fed Empire State Index published on the day.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.385%, 94bps less than the current rate.
