| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.89 | 3.95 | -0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.20 | 4.29 | -0.09 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.51 | 4.59 | -0.08 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.70 | 4.75 | -0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.24 | 4.32 | -0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.48 | -0.08 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 13 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell across the curve, somewhat following the downward movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST). May’s Labour Force report was the economic highlight of the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.08%, 24bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a near-100% chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell noticeably along the curve for a third consecutive session. May PPI figures were released along with weekly initial jobless claim numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.30% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.295%, 104bps less than the current rate.
