| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.98 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.29 | 4.34 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.59 | 4.64 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.75 | 4.84 | -0.09 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.32 | 4.40 | -0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.48 | 4.54 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 12 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately across the curve, slightly lagging downward movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST). There were no economic data releases on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.145%, 18bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a solid chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell noticeably along the curve. May CPI figures were released and the FOMC announced no change to its federal funds target range.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 contracts implied 4.405%, 93bps less than the current rate.
