| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 3.93 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.24 | 4.26 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.55 | 4.56 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.72 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.29 | 4.28 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.43 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 6 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved modestly lower across the curve, lagging the falls of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night. The only data of note were April’s home lending figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.105%, 22bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a high likelihood of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose modestly across the curve. Data releases included April trade balance figures and weekly initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.325% for the month and thus almost no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.465%, 86bps less than the current rate.
