| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.02 | 4.05 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.42 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.68 | 4.71 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.81 | 4.87 | -0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.39 | 4.50 | -0.11 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.54 | 4.65 | -0.11 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 3 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields again moved moderately lower across the curve. Data releases included the Melbourne Institute’s May Inflation Gauge, May ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Index and May CoreLogic Home Prices.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.18%, 14bps below the current cash rate, and thus pricing in a more-than-50% chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields again again moved lower across the curve. Data releases included the ISM’s May manufacturing PMI and April’s construction spending report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.595%, 73bps less than the current rate.
