| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.07 | 3.95 | 0.12 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.41 | 4.27 | 0.14 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.71 | 4.58 | 0.13 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.97 | 4.98 | -0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.62 | 4.55 | 0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.67 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 29 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields jumped nearly uniformly across the curve. Economic reports included April monthly CPI figures (the catalyst for the rise), March quarter construction numbers and the April Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index update.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.235%, 9bps below the current cash rate, and thus pricing in some chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields declined a little while long-term yields increased noticeably. Data releases were limited to the latest Fed Beige Book and a regional Fed index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.775%, 55bps less than the current rate.
