| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.96 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.27 | 4.29 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.98 | 4.95 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.55 | 4.47 | 0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.67 | 4.57 | 0.10 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 28 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields again generally declined across the curve. The only domestic economic data of note were April retail sales figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month and thus pricing a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.13%, 19bps below the current cash rate, and thus pricing in a solid chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose moderately while long-term yields increased more noticeably. Data releases included the March reading of the Case Shiller Home Price Index and The Conference Board’s May reading of its Consumer Confidence Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.76%, 57bps less than the current rate.
