| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 3.93 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.27 | 0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.62 | 4.56 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.95 | 4.94 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.47 | 4.48 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.57 | 4.58 | -0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 24 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Long-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose moderately across the curve, generally in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). There were no domestic economic reports of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.31% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.15%, 17bps below the current cash rate, and thus pricing in a solid chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields moved a little higher while long-term yields declined a touch. Data releases included April durable goods and the final estimate for the University of Michigan’s May consumer sentiment index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.73%, 60bps less than the current rate.
