| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.93 | 3.89 | 0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.30 | 4.26 | 0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.60 | 4.57 | 0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.87 | 4.83 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.42 | 4.41 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.54 | 4.55 | -0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 22 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose moderately along the curve, in contrast with downward movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST). There were no major domestic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.31% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.09%, 24bps below the current cash rate, and thus nearly one 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose with the exception of those at the ultra-long end of the curve. Data releases included April existing home sales and the minutes of the FOMC’s May meeting.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.325% for the month and thus almost no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.635%, 70bps less than the current rate.
