| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.84 | 3.83 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.22 | 4.20 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.52 | 4.50 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.83 | 4.80 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.42 | 4.38 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.56 | 4.51 | 0.05 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 17 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly along the curve, unlike the movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). There were no major domestic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.31% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.03%, 29bps below the current cash rate, and thus one 25bp cut and a modest chance of another one between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose moderately along the curve. Data releases were limited to the Conference Board’s April reading of its Leading Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a slim chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.57%, 76bps less than the current rate.
