| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.96 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.34 | 4.34 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.65 | 4.65 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.82 | 4.86 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.49 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.59 | 4.63 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 14 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields hardly moved, somewhat in line with modest declines of US Treasury yields on Monday night (AEST). There were no data releases, although the 2024/2025 Budget Papers were tabled after hours.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month and thus a minuscule probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.15%, 17bps below the current cash rate, and thus a solid chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately along the curve. Data releases included April PPI and April NFIB figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a slim chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.57%, 76bps less than the current rate.
