| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.96 | 3.98 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.33 | 4.36 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.63 | 4.66 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.86 | 4.81 | 0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.46 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.64 | 4.61 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 10 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell across the curve, largely in line with the movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). There were no data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.17%, 15bps below the current cash rate, or a solid chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased moderately across the curve. The only economic data release was the University of Michigan’s May consumer sentiment survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 12 June. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a slim chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.60%, 73bps less than the current rate.
