| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 3.93 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.36 | 4.30 | 0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.66 | 4.60 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.81 | 4.84 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.46 | 4.50 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.61 | 4.64 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 9 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose almost uniformly across the curve, unlike the movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST) where short-term yields remained almost steady. There were no data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.29% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 3.955%, 37bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut and a good chance of another 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately across the curve. The only economic data release was the weekly jobless claims data.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.235% for the month and thus some chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.54%, 79bps less than the current rate.
