| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.93 | 3.91 | 0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.30 | 4.32 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.60 | 4.63 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.84 | 4.83 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.46 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.64 | 4.60 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 8 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose modestly at the short end while longer-term yields fell, somewhat in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST). There were no data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.105%, 21bps below the current cash rate, or a high chance of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields crept a little higher steady while longer-term yields rose moderately. The only notable data release was the March wholesale inventories report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.245% for the month and thus some chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.57%, 76bps less than the current rate.
