| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 4.02 | -0.11 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.39 | -0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.63 | 4.69 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.83 | 4.83 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.46 | 4.49 | -0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.64 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 7 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields declined again, noticeably outpacing the falls of US Treasury yields on Monday night (AEST). March quarter real retail sales figures were released, the RBA announced no change to its cash rate target and the May Statement on Monetary Policy was published.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.29% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 3.955%, 37bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut with some chance of another one between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields remained steady while longer-term yields fell moderately. The only data release was the May consumer credit report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.245% for the month and thus some chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.555%, 78bps less than the current rate.
