| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.02 | 4.03 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.39 | 4.43 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.69 | 4.73 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.83 | 4.82 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.49 | 4.51 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.64 | 4.67 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 6 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields declined again, although not quite as much as the falls of US Treasury yields on Friday night (AEST) and with not much movement at the short end. Data releases included the Melbourne Institute’s April reading of its Inflation Gauge and ANZ’s April Job Ads survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.22%, 10bps below the current cash rate, or some chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields ticked up at the short end and declined modestly at the long end. The only data release was the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS).
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.24% for the month and thus some chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.555%, 78bps less than the current rate.
