| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.03 | 4.06 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.43 | 4.46 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.82 | 4.88 | -0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.67 | 4.73 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 3 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields declined again, although not quite as much as the falls of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). The only notable data release was the March dwelling finance approvals report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.323% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.22%, 10bps below the current cash rate, or some chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve. Data releases included April non-farm payrolls and April ISM services PMIs.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.22% for the month and thus some chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.53%, 80bps less than the current rate.
