| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.11 | 4.03 | 0.08 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.52 | 4.44 | 0.08 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.79 | 4.70 | 0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.08 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.68 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.75 | 4.79 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 1 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose noticeably across the curve, outpacing the rises of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST). There were no especially notable data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.30%, 2bps below the current cash rate, or a very small chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across the curve, with declines heaviest at the short end. Data releases included March JOLTS and April ISM PMIs. The FOMC meeting ended with no rate changes announced, although the pace of bond holding reductions is to be slowed.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.255% for the month and thus a 30% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.715%, 62bps less than the current rate.
