| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.03 | 4.10 | -0.07 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.44 | 4.50 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.07 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 5.04 | 4.98 | 0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.68 | 4.62 | 0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.79 | 4.73 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 30 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve, outpacing the falls of US Treasury yields on Monday night (AEST). Data releases included March private credit and March retail sales reports.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.22%, 10bps below the current cash rate, or some chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose uniformly across the curve. Data releases included March quarter employment cost indices, The Conference Board’s April consumer sentiment index and February home price indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, April 2025 contracts implied 4.885%, 44bps less than the current rate.
