| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.85 | 3.93 | -0.08 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.29 | 4.40 | -0.11 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.99 | 4.93 | 0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.59 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.70 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 18 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell noticeably across the curve, outpacing the falls of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST). The only data release on the day was the March Labour Force report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.98%, 34bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut and some chance of another one between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose moderately, with larger rises at the front of the curve. Notable data releases included the March Conference Board Leading Index, March existing home sales and initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus an almost-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, April 2025 contracts implied 4.78%, 55bps less than the current rate.
