| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.82 | 3.83 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.27 | 4.28 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.56 | 4.56 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.92 | 4.89 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.61 | 4.52 | 0.09 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.62 | 0.11 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 15 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields slipped modestly, lagging the larger falls of US Treasury yields on Friday night (AEST). There were no domestic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.945%, 37bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut and an even chance of another one between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose by increasing amounts across the curve. Data releases included March retail sales, February business inventories and the April NAHB housing market index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, April 2025 contracts implied 4.71%, 61bps less than the current rate.
