| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.81 | 3.67 | 0.14 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.27 | 4.13 | 0.14 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.55 | 4.43 | 0.12 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.95 | 4.97 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.57 | 4.55 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.67 | 4.63 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 11 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields jumped following large increases of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST). The Melbourne Institute’s April reading of consumer inflation expectations was the only domestic data release.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.95%, 37bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut and an even chance of another one between now and next May.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields declined on Thursday while longer-term yields rose moderately. The only data releases of note were the March PPI report and weekly initial jobless claim numbers .
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 contracts implied 4.72%, 61bps less than the current rate.
