| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.67 | 3.70 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.13 | 4.18 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.43 | 4.48 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.97 | 4.74 | 0.23 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.55 | 4.36 | 0.19 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.49 | 0.14 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 10 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell moderately across the curve, somewhat in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night (AEST). There were no domestic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.79%, 53bps below the current cash rate, or just over two 25bp cuts between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields jumped on Wednesday night (AEDT), especially at the short end of the curve. The only data release of note was the much-anticipated March CPI report while the minutes of the March FOMC meeting were also published.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 contracts implied 4.72%, 61bps less than the current rate.
