| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.70 | 3.73 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.18 | 4.21 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.48 | 4.51 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.74 | 4.80 | -0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.36 | 4.43 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.49 | 4.55 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 9 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell uniformly across the curve. Data releases included Westpac-Melbourne Institute April consumer sentiment indices and NAB’s March business survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.83%, 49bps below the current cash rate, or nearly two 25bp cuts between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve on Tuesday night (AEDT). The only data release of note was the March NFIB small business survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 contracts implied 4.44%, 89bps less than the current rate.
