| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.73 | 3.65 | 0.08 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.21 | 4.11 | 0.10 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.51 | 4.42 | 0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.80 | 4.75 | 0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.43 | 4.40 | 0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 8 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose noticeably and fairly uniformly across the curve, largely in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Friday night. Data releases were limited to February home finance approval numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.84%, 48bps below the current cash rate, or nearly two 25bp cuts between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose by decreasing amounts across the curve on Monday night (AEDT). There were no major data releases.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.57% rate, 76bps less than the current rate.
