| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.65 | 3.71 | -0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.11 | 4.19 | -0.08 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.42 | 4.50 | -0.08 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.75 | 4.65 | 0.10 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.31 | 0.09 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.55 | 4.48 | 0.07 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 5 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell fairly uniformly across the curve, outpacing the moderate falls of US Treasury yields on Thursday night. Data releases were limited to February goods trade numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.865%, 45bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut with a large chance of a second cut between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose significantly across the curve on Friday night (AEST). Major data releases included March non-farm payrolls and February consumer credit figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.515% rate, 81bps less than the current rate.
