| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.71 | 3.68 | 0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.19 | 4.15 | 0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.50 | 4.44 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.65 | 4.68 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.31 | 4.35 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.48 | 4.51 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 4 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose by increasing amounts across the curve, ignoring generally modest declines of US Treasury yields overnight. Data releases were limited to February dwelling approval numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.90%, 42bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut with a good chance of a second cut between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve on Thursday night (AEST). There were no significant data releases.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.295% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.415% rate, 91bps less than the current rate.
