| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.68 | 3.62 | 0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.15 | 4.08 | 0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.44 | 4.38 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.68 | 4.70 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.35 | 4.36 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.51 | 4.50 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 3 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose noticeably across the curve again, unlike the overnight movements of US Treasury yields which slipped a touch at the short end. There were no data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.88%, 44bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut with a good chance of a second cut between now and next March.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields declined modestly while longer-term yields moved a touch up or down on Wednesday night (AEST). Data releases included the ISM’s March services PMI.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.46% rate, 87bps less than the current rate.
