| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.62 | 3.55 | 0.07 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 3.98 | 0.10 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.28 | 0.10 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.70 | 4.71 | -0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.36 | 4.31 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.46 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 2 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose noticeably across the curve, largely in line with overnight rises of US Treasury yields. Economic data included ANZ March job ads, Westpac-MI March Inflation Gauge and RBA minutes.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.825%, 49bps below the current cash rate, or around two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields slipped while longer-term yields rose on Tuesday night (AEST). Data releases included February JOLTS and February factory orders.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.48% rate, 85bps less than the current rate.
