| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.55 | 3.58 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 4.02 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.28 | 4.32 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.62 | 4.57 | 0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.21 | 4.19 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.35 | 4.35 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 28 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell moderately across the curve but lagged the overnight falls of US Treasury yields. Economic data included February’s retail sales, February private credit and March inflation expectations.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.775%, 54bps below the current cash rate, or around two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose noticeably at the short end on Thursday night (AEST) while long-term yields increased modestly. There were a handful of economic data releases, including February pending home sales and initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.41% rate, 92bps less than the current rate.
